Introduction: A Pivotal Time for Humanity

We face a pivotal time for humanity. We fumbled badly in one prior pivot in history; did better for a stretch with another. How will we fare this time?

Homo Sapiens finds itself at a crossroads once again. Throughout our 300,000-year history, we have faced several pivotal moments that redefined our species' trajectory. Now, we stand before another such juncture, perhaps the most consequential yet. Five formidable forces are converging to reshape the very foundations of human society:

• First among these is our own impact on the planet. For millennia, we viewed nature as an inexhaustible resource to be conquered and exploited. Now, we face the consequences of our hubris in the form of climate change and ecological collapse. This crisis forces us to reexamine our relationship with the natural world and our place within it.

• Second is the rise of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. For the first time in history, we are on the brink of creating entities that may surpass us in intelligence. Simultaneously, we are gaining the ability to reshape our own biology. These twin developments present tantalizing opportunities as well as existential risks for humanity.

• The third challenge is the growing mismatch between our political structures and the challenges we face. Political institutions, designed for a slower-paced world, are struggling to keep pace with the breakneck speed of change and the virality of misinformation. Furthermore, our politics are local, while our most pressing challenges are global.

• Fourth is a demographic shift unprecedented in human history. For the first time, many societies face declining populations not due to war, famine, or disease, but by choice. This shift presents a host of economic and social challenges that will require significant societal adaptation.

• Last but not least, the world's increasing interconnectedness has created a complex system where seemingly minor events can cascade into unforeseen global crises, affecting populations and ecosystems alike. Our ability to predict and manage these ripple effects is nascent at best.

These combined forces will profoundly transform how we live, work, organize societies, and even view humanity’s role. On the bright side, humans have weathered epochal turning points before and still managed to emerge intact. Each pivot entailed wholesale paradigm shifts in how we view the world and adapt to ever-increasing complexity. 

First Pivot: The Poverty Trap

The adoption of agriculture beginning some 10,000 years ago culminated in humanity's first major pivot. The spread of agriculture increased food supplies, enabled population growth, and created large permanent settlements. It also had unintended consequences: over time agriculture fostered the creation of rigid hierarchies, with pampered elites lording over dirt poor masses. Farmers worked much harder than their foraging predecessors, suffered from nutritional deficiencies and disease, and endured bouts of famine. It took us several thousand years to break out of this poverty trap.

Human prosperity over time: poverty trap until growth revolution in late 19th century

Second Pivot: The Growth Revolution

In the late 1800s, humanity finally figured out how to break free from the poverty trap and embark on a period of sustained growth and rising prosperity. Unlike previous growth spurts in history, this transformation proved enduring. Curiously, the causes of this breakthrough remain subject to debate, with divergent perspectives across academic disciplines such as economics, history, sociology, and technology studies.

While the intense focus on growth yielded unprecedented improvements in living conditions for much of humanity, it also came with significant costs, including environmental degradation, social dislocation, and colonial exploitation and disruption of indigenous cultures.

A New Pivot

Today, humanity finds itself thrust into a complex new reality we don’t yet fully grasp – like an unanticipated leap from checkers to 3D chess without a user guide in sight. And just when we think we've learned the game, the rules are altered, new layers emerge, and a few wildcards are thrown in for good measure!

To navigate this new reality, we must first understand how we got here. Recent decades have unveiled numerous new insights about our past, but much of this knowledge remains siloed in academic departments, liked valuable commodities locked in separate warehouses. By weaving together these disparate threads, we can begin to craft new narratives to light our path forward.

The stakes could scarcely be higher. As humanity writes its next chapter, the narrative it chooses will shape our actions, and the very future of our species. Will this be the story of humanity's greatest triumph, or its final act? The choice, as always in human history, remains ours to make.

Efforts to paint an updated human history in light of the tidal shifts we face are in their infancy. This work aims to contribute some ideas and insights to that effort, and hopefully, provide you the reader with some food for thought as you craft your own narrative.

Next: Part I - What is it About Sapiens?